SEC’s Chances Depend on the Judges
Attorney Fred Rispoli recently shared insights into the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit during an interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast. According to Rispoli, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could have a strong chance of winning its appeal against Ripple, but the outcome largely depends on which judges are assigned to the case.
“The SEC’s odds of winning could significantly increase if the panel of judges has a history of siding with government agencies,” Rispoli explained. He added that the panel’s composition could either favor Ripple or the SEC, with the latter’s chances rising to as much as 70-80% if the judges have a record of agreeing with government arguments.
Ripple Still Equipped to Fight
Despite these concerns, Rispoli is confident that Ripple has all the necessary tools to mount a strong defense. He emphasized that both Ripple and the SEC are facing high stakes, as the outcome will not only affect the two parties but also impact the broader cryptocurrency industry.
“The SEC will appeal every aspect of the case that it lost,” Rispoli said. He noted that while some of the SEC’s arguments might be more convincing than others, one area of significant risk for XRP holders is the programmatic sales aspect. This part of the case focuses on whether Ripple’s sales of XRP tokens should be classified as securities transactions.
Potential Impact on XRP Holders and Exchanges
Rispoli warned that the SEC’s victory in this area could spell trouble for XRP holders, as the legal status of the token could come under scrutiny again. Additionally, other major crypto companies like Coinbase and Kraken, which have been selling XRP, could face regulatory challenges if the SEC succeeds in its appeal.
Beyond challenging the programmatic sales ruling, the SEC is also likely to appeal the $125 million penalty Ripple was ordered to pay. Rispoli believes the agency may push for a larger fine in its continued effort to assert regulatory control over the crypto space.
Ripple’s Response and Investor Confidence
During the appeal process, Ripple will face another challenge—convincing its clients and institutional investors to remain loyal. The uncertainty surrounding the appeal could make it difficult for Ripple to maintain investor confidence. However, if Ripple prevails, it could solidify its position as a leader in the cryptocurrency world.
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